I put ~50% chance on getting a pause in AI development

1. I put high odds (~80%) that there will be a warning shot that’s big enough that a pause becomes very politically tractable (~75% pause passed, conditional on warning shot).
2. The supply chain is brittle, so people can unilaterally slow down development. The closer we get, more and more people are likely to do this. There will be whack-a-mole, but that can give us a lot of time.
3. We’ve banned certain technological development in the past, so we have proof of concept.
4. We all don’t want to die. This is something of virtually all political creeds can agree on.

​*Definition of a pause for this conversation: getting us an extra 15 years before ASI. So this could either be from a international treaty or simply slowing down AI development